84 – Western Balkan Route: A Modern Silk Road
2025 No 84
A vision appeared to Paul in the night: a man of Macedonia was standing and appealing to him, and saying, “Come over to Macedonia and help us.” When he had seen the vision, immediately we sought to go into Macedonia, concluding that God had called us to preach the gospel to them.
—Acts 16:9-10
Introduction
When Paul journeyed to Macedonia, some might argue that he was already in the Balkans, or at least on the threshold of what we now call the Western Balkan Route. Guided by a divine vision, he was directed to move forward in that direction—a path that would continue to draw people, even today. In recent decades, nearly two million migrants have followed a similar route, each with their own set of aspirations and hopes.
So, why does this matter to us?
I’ve had the privilege of meeting pastors throughout Turkey, Europe, and the Balkans. These leaders share a common passion for their neighbors and recognize that reaching them with the gospel requires a deep understanding of who they are and where they come from. The primary focus of our work along the Eastern Mediterranean Route (EMR) has typically been on sub-Saharan migrants. However, this route is a melting pot of diverse backgrounds. While sub-Saharan Africans do make up a portion of those traveling through, the majority of migrants are fleeing conflict in the Middle East, moving northward and westward in search of safety and stability. Mixed among them are Africans, contributing to the region's unique tapestry of migration.
To effectively reach these migrants with the gospel, we must take the time to understand who they are, why they are passing through, and what motivates their journeys. The migration routes that intersect in the Balkans are not just paths to Europe…they represent the hopes, struggles, and suffering of those seeking a better life. Understanding their stories is essential in our efforts to engage them with the gospel.
European Compassion
In our last post, we explored the history of the Balkan states. Now, we turn to placing that history within a contemporary context. After World War II, much of Europe showed significant sympathy toward refugees. Within six years of the war’s end, international agreements established protocols for handling those displaced by conflict. Chief among these was the 1951 Refugee Convention, in which signatories committed to processing asylum claims based on a “well-grounded fear of persecution.”1 They also pledged not to return applicants to situations where their “life or freedom would be threatened.”2 These principles emerged as lessons from Europe’s wartime experiences, embodying a humane approach to the plight of refugees.
By 1985, the Schengen Agreement had been signed, although its full implementation would not occur until 1995.3 This agreement effectively dissolved internal border controls between European Union member states, eventually encompassing all 27 countries by the century’s end. While its primary goal was to facilitate free movement for EU citizens, it inadvertently created a system ripe for exploitation by asylum seekers. Under Schengen, anyone who gained legal entry to the EU could freely travel to their destination of choice and file for asylum there. This obligated host countries to process their applications and provide support during the judicial review, regardless of the claim's merit.
Unsurprisingly, wealthier EU nations became particularly appealing to both genuine refugees and economic migrants. The system allowed individuals to file claims and access benefits without needing to establish themselves as "true" refugees. Germany, situated on the EU's eastern border, became a prime destination for migrants, particularly from the post-Soviet states and the Middle East. Between 1960 and 1998, Germany’s foreign population surged from 686,000 to 7.32 million.4 In response to this influx and growing concerns over system abuse, Germany amended its constitution in 1993. The new law stated that asylum applications would be denied immediately if the applicant had entered from or passed through a “safe country.”5 This allowed for deportation in such cases. Other EU countries, facing similar pressures, began advocating for systemic reforms.
In 1999, the EU adopted the Common European Asylum System (CEAS), a framework that evolved to include the Dublin Agreements. These required asylum seekers to register in their first country of entry or a country determined by EU immigration officials.6 This policy shifted the burden of border enforcement to peripheral states such as Greece, Italy, Austria, and Spain. Additionally, stricter scrutiny of visa applications reduced the flow of "potential" asylum seekers through airports. At the time, the system proved effective. Frontex, the EU border agency, estimated fewer than ten thousand illegal entries annually across Central and Eastern routes.7 However, this relative stability unraveled during the refugee crisis of 2015.
The Early Days of Pass-Through Migration
The Balkans, a region of nine countries, sit strategically between Turkey and Greece to the South and Italy, Austria, and Hungary to the North. This position makes the area a key gateway between Western Europe and Asia. Historically, it served as the route of the famed Orient Express from Paris to Istanbul, and today, major highways and rail networks connect it to the rest of Europe and beyond. For much of the 20th century, the Balkans were plagued by war and economic hardship, but recent decades have brought stability and development. Many Balkan states now aspire to join the European Union, a goal supported by the EU for two main reasons: the region is home to one in ten Europeans, and its inclusion would provide a direct connection to Greece and Turkey.9
The path to EU membership for the Balkans began in earnest at the 2003 Thessaloniki Summit, during a period when the EU was incorporating many former Soviet states.11 Entry requirements were based on the 1993 Copenhagen Criteria, which set high political and economic standards.12 Slovenia achieved EU membership in 2004 and joined the Schengen Area in 2007. Croatia followed in 2013, gaining Schengen status only recently. Other Balkan states have been granted candidate status but have yet to fully meet the EU’s rigorous conditions.
In their bid to align with EU expectations, many Balkan states were willing to serve as transit zones during the refugee crisis of 2015. At the time, Europe was broadly sympathetic to Middle Eastern refugees fleeing conflict, especially those from Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. For the Balkans, this role as a "pass-through" region was ideal: they provided a corridor for refugees without the expectation of permanent settlement. This arrangement suited both sides, as most migrants aimed to reach wealthier European nations rather than stay in the Balkans.
The Balkan Route in 2015
In early 2015, a controlled corridor formed, connecting Turkey, Greece, and the EU. Migrants were collected on one end and transported by bus and train across the Balkans to their intended destinations in northern Europe. Over one million migrants utilized this route in just the first half of the year.13 Initially, Europe welcomed the influx. Public opinion favored providing aid to those escaping war, and the EU facilitated the passage of migrants through its open borders. Hungary, in particular, became a key transit link, allowing refugees to move through its territory toward Austria and Germany.
Germany played a pivotal role in this movement, driven by both humanitarian and economic motivations. Due to a low birth rate and an aging population, Germany faced a severe labor shortage. Reports like those from Schnitzer Economics suggested that Germany needed 1.5 million immigrants annually to sustain its economy.14 Migrants from Syria, many of whom were skilled professionals, offered an opportunity to fill this gap while reinforcing Germany’s image as a humanitarian leader.15
However, the Schengen Area’s open borders allowed migrants to continue traveling beyond Germany, spreading integration challenges across multiple EU states. Between 2014 and 2017, Europe officially recorded 1.9 million arrivals, but first-time asylum applications during the same period totaled 3.6 million.16 This discrepancy underscored a deeper crisis: Europe lacked a clear understanding of the true number of migrants crossing its borders. The strain on the EU’s systems and policies quickly became apparent.
To address the mounting pressures, the EU shifted responsibility for processing all asylum applications to entry states along the Balkan Route, including Italy, Austria, and Hungary. Hungary responded by closing its borders, erecting fences, and deploying its military to prevent illegal crossings. This drew sharp criticism from humanitarian organizations and the media. By late 2015, Austria announced it would allow refugees to pass, exacerbating the situation further.17 By year’s end, over 250,000 Syrian refugees had entered Germany, contributing to a total of nearly 900,000 asylum applications—far exceeding the number of Syrian arrivals and revealing the presence of other migrant groups.
Angela Merkel Receives Award18
In 2016, Austria and four Balkan states—Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, and Macedonia—imposed strict quotas to limit the number of migrants crossing their borders.19 These measures effectively curtailed the Balkan Route but created bottlenecks in Turkey and Greece.20 As a result, migrants began seeking alternative, more dangerous paths. Today, these "dark corridors" remain a persistent challenge, reflecting the ongoing complexity of migration management in Europe.
Smuggler Networks
Migration often mirrors the behavior of water: it always seeks the path of least resistance, building pressure when obstructed until it eventually finds a way forward. The Arab Spring and its aftermath, particularly the Syrian war, have displaced over 12 million people. Similarly, conflicts in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan have forced millions more to flee, with many aiming for Europe as their destination. The EU may try to constrain the flow, but migrants, or should I say smugglers, will always find a way.
Due to visa restrictions, reaching Europe through legal means such as air travel is impossible for most. That leaves only one feasible route: through the Balkans. Navigating that territory is no simple task. The region’s rugged mountains and the fortified borders of Hungary, Austria, Slovenia, and Croatia make unauthorized crossings nearly impossible without assistance. This is where smugglers come into play. Acting as intermediaries, they guide migrants through each leg of the journey, charging significant fees that often exceed 10,000 euros. Smugglers operate through complex networks that vary in size and organization:
- Organized Criminal Networks: These professional operations dominate the global human smuggling trade. According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, 46% of organized crime convictions in the region are tied to human smuggling or trafficking.22 Although these networks account for only 17% of smuggling activity, they generate billions of euros annually.23
- Small-Scale, Decentralized Groups: Small, loosely connected networks constitute most smuggling operations in the Balkans. They obviously have relationships with the larger criminal groups above, but their organizational patterns are challenging to trace. These groups are harder to detect and disrupt, making them the backbone of illicit migration.
The process of smuggling typically involves a series of coordinated "hand-offs." Migrants departing from Turkey are given GPS coordinates and a contact number to meet a smuggler in Greece. From there, they are passed along to new contacts in Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, and beyond, paying at each stage. Rarely do all contacts within the network know one another, ensuring secrecy and minimizing risk for the smugglers.24
Migration routes often align with cultural and regional affiliations. Middle Eastern migrants, including Syrians, Pakistanis, and Iranians, commonly rely on Islamic smuggling networks. Those "hand-offs" follow connections and locations that extend back to the Ottoman period. Meanwhile, African migrants tend to use Turkish or Greek networks. Depending on the route, some migrants head north through Serbia and into Hungary, while others move west to Greece and then north toward Italy.
Despite intensified border security and efforts to curtail smuggling, migration continues. These underground networks demonstrate the resilience of those seeking better lives and the persistent pressures driving migration toward Europe. Governmental corruption is difficult to control, and the profits of illegal migration are difficult to imagine. In 2023, nearly one hundred thousand illegal crossings were recorded. Most acknowledge that these numbers are significantly underreported. That represents well over a billion euros in profit.
Changing Times
Bob Dylan famously wrote:
Come gather ‘round people, wherever you roam,
And admit that the waters, around you have grown…
For the times they are a-changin’.
This sentiment aptly reflects the situation in the Western Balkans. Croatia, in particular, serves as a case study for the region's transformation. Since joining the European Union (EU) in 2013 and becoming a Schengen participant in 2023, the country has experienced significant economic benefits. Open borders (towards the EU) and adopting the Euro have sparked rapid growth, particularly in construction and hospitality. However, this economic expansion has also exposed critical challenges, most notably a labor shortage.
Croatia, with a population of 3.9 million, is facing a demographic decline.26 Projections indicate that by 2050, their population will shrink to 3.3 million. Today, one-fifth of the population is over the age of 65. Within the next 25 years, that figure is expected to rise to one-third, making Croatia one of Europe’s oldest countries.27 Many Croatians live in rural areas, and only 1.7 million are in the workforce.28 Compounding the issue is an emigration trend… an estimated 2.5 million Croatians and their descendants reside abroad, often pursuing higher-paying opportunities.29 Together, an aging population and the emigration of young adults have left significant gaps in Croatia's labor market.
The growing shortage has quickly drawn the attention of non-Western migrants. Experts estimate that Croatia will require half a million immigrants to fill low-wage jobs by 2030.30 In the first four months of 2024 alone… 72,000 migrants arrived…legally!31 Interestingly, most of these workers come from Asia rather than the Middle East. According to pastors and community leaders in the region, this trend is driven by two factors: first, a desire to avoid entanglement with established smuggling networks, and second, a preference for workers from Christian-majority countries to prevent what some see as the potential Islamization of Croatia’s culture. Like I said, things are a-changin’.
Despite the promise of opportunity, labor migration often brings exploitation. Croatia’s labor recruitment system resembles those seen in the Gulf States, where foreign agencies manage the influx of workers. Reports indicate frequent abuses, including the confiscation of personal documents, coercive fixed-term contracts, intimidation by employers, and psychological mistreatment. In some cases, this extends to physical or sexual violence. Alarmingly, some indications are that forced labor and sex trafficking are already significant issues, with sex labor surpassing other forms of exploitation.32
As legal immigration pathways from Asia expand, they are poised to overshadow refugee movements from North Africa and the Middle East. Between 2018 and 2023, 46% of all trafficking cases in the region involved labor exploitation.33 Notably, this occurred before Croatia’s integration into the Schengen Area. With the country aiming to attract 500,000 labor migrants by 2030, organized criminal networks from regions such as Africa will likely establish a presence. The Nigerian mafias, which have entrenched themselves in Spain, Italy, and the Gulf labor markets, may soon follow suit, further complicating Croatia’s migration landscape.
Instagram ads for work in Croatia.
Conclusion:
The academic discipline of diaspora missiology focuses on understanding and participating in God's redemptive mission among diasporic groups—people living outside their place of origin.34 This framework provides valuable insights as we seek to understand African movements and discern how God is at work to redeem His people in these contexts.
For church leaders and missiologists in the Balkans, understanding the context is essential for shaping effective gospel transmission strategies. While these contexts are undeniably complex, they are no more daunting than the challenges faced by Titus and Paul as they brought the gospel to the region centuries ago.
However, caution is needed. It can be tempting to focus excessively on the dynamics of the Western Balkan Route, humanitarian aid for refugees, or social justice for labor migrants. While these issues are undoubtedly significant, they should not overshadow our primary mission: to follow the Lord’s leadership in sharing the gospel.
The Apostle Paul exemplified this balance. He engaged with the cultural and social realities of his time while staying firmly rooted in his mission to proclaim Christ. Today, as we navigate the intricate realities of migration and diaspora communities, we must also strive for a balance that allows us to understand the context, address urgent needs, and remain faithful to the call of the Great Commission.
1 UNHCR, "Text of the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees", United Nations https://www.unhcr.org/media/convention-and-protocol-relating-status-refugees (accessed January 11, 2024).
2 IM Hatton, "European Asylum Policy before and after the Migration Crisis", IZA World of Labor https://wol.iza.org/articles/european-asylum-policy-before-and-after-the-migration-crisis/long.
3 "The Schengen Agreement", Federal Foreign Office https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/visa-service/231202-231202#:~:text=Notification%20of%2020%20April%201994,of%20Checks%20at%20their%20Common (accessed January 14, 2025).
4 Kay Hailbronner, "Fifty Years of the Basic Law - Migration, Citizenship and Asylum," SMU Law Review 53, no. 10 (2000): 519.
5 Ibid., 534. Refugee producing countries seldom have visa-free access to the EU. That means anyone who arrived legally in the EU had to pass through a safe third country.
6 M. Auguatus Hamilton, "European Migration: We Were Refugees", M2M3 https://m2m3.org/7-european-migration-we-were-refugees/ (accessed January 11, 2024).
7 Hatton.
8 Mathieu Martinier and D’Alberto Campi, "Photoreportage: Sur La Route Des Migrants En Serbie", IRIN https://newirin.irinnews.org/divers/2015/4/16/photoreportage-sur-la-route-des-migrants-en-serbie (accessed January 11, 2024).
9 Alexander Andreev, "Balkan Tumult in 2015", Deutsche Welle https://www.dw.com/en/a-tumultuous-year-for-the-balkans/a-18932799 (accessed January 11, 2024).
10 By J Logan - Own work by uploader, based on free image Image:European Union.png, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=5827086
11 Vessela Tcherneva, "Before It’s Too Late: How the EU Should Support the Western Balkans’ Accession", European Council on Foreign Relations https://ecfr.eu/article/growing-pains-how-the-eu-should-support-the-western-balkans-eu-accession/ (accessed January 11, 2024).
12 EUR-Lex, "Accession Criteria (Copenhagen Criteria)", Publications Office of the European Union https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/accession-criteria-copenhagen-criteria.html (accessed January 11, 2024).
13 Nermin Oruc, Saima Raza, and Danica Santic, Analytical Report: The Western Balkan Migration Route (2015-2019) (Vienna: Prague Process Secretariat, 2020), 2.
14 "1.5 Million Immigrants Per Year Required", Tagesschau https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/wirtschaftsweise-schnitzer-zuwanderung-fachkraefte-100.html (accessed January 11, 2024). See also Ralph Schoellhammer, "Germany Needs 1.5 Million New Immigrants Per Year", The Post: UnHerd https://unherd.com/thepost/germany-needs-1-5-million-new-immigrants-per-year/ (accessed January 11, 2024).
15 UNHCR, "Angela Merkel to Receive Unhcr Nansen Refugee Award for Protecting Refugees at Height of Syria Crisis", United Nations http://tiny.cc/il7zvz (accessed January 11, 2024).
16 Heather Conley and Donatienne Ruy, Crossing Borders: How the Migration Crisis Transformed Europe’s External Policy (Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2018), 6.
17 "2015 in Review: How Europe Reacted to the Refugee Crisis", International Center for Migration Policy Development https://www.icmpd.org/file/download/59411/file/2015%2520in%2520review_Chronology%2520of%2520events%2520and%2520policy%2520responses.pdf (accessed January 11, 2024).
18 UNHCR, 2022. "Dr. Angela Merkel to Receive UNHCR Nansen Refugee Award," YouTube, https://youtu.be/Mzv8rwi8TvA?si=20QMFbtQzIh_ZSgi (accessed January 11, 2024).
19 Elizabeth Schumacher, "Closure of Balkan Route Divides Europe", Deutsche Well https://www.dw.com/en/closure-of-balkan-route-divides-europe/a-19106106 (accessed January 11, 2024).
20 Charles Recknagel, "Five Things to Know: The Crisis over the Balkan Migrant Route", Radio Free Europe https://www.rferl.org/a/five-things-to-know-about-the-balkan-route-refugee-crisis/27585098.html (accessed January 11, 2024).
21 As I was taking this photograph, I was stopped by the border police. Just being in a rental car was enough to facilitation a brief detention.
22 UNODC, Measuring Organized Crime in the Western Balkans (Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2020), 6.
23 Ibid., 10.
24 Dušan Stanković, Little Black Book of Organized Crime Groups in the Western Balkans (Belgrade: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP), 2022), 18.
25 Marko Djurica, "Fear Stalks Migrants Huggled Along Hungary’s Border", The Observer https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/mar/19/hungary-serbia-border-migration-controls-containers (accessed January 11, 2024).
26 "Croatia Population", WorldoMeter https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/croatia-population/ (accessed January 16, 2025).
27 Nithin Umapathi, Harnessing Human Capital for Growth in Croatia (The World Bank, 2023), 22.
28 "Labor Market Information: Croatia", European Employment Services https://tinyurl.com/asvacbpd (accessed January 16, 2025).
29 "Croatia: The Diaspora", croatia.eu https://croatia.eu/index.php/en/home-en/geography-and-population/the-diaspora (accessed January 16, 2025).
30 "Labour Crunch Forces Croatia to Open Doors to Asian Workforce", France24 https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240327-labour-crunch-forces-croatia-to-open-doors-to-asian-workforce (accessed January 16, 2025).
31 Lauren Simmonds, "72,000 Foreign Workers Enter Croatia in the First 4 Months of 2024", Total Croatia https://total-croatia-news.com/news/foreign-workers-4/ (accessed January 16, 2025).
32 Saša Đorđević and Vanja Petrović, Forced to Work: Labor Exploitation in the Western Balkans (Global Initiative, 2024), 5.
33 Ibid., 9.
34 Yong J. Cho, "Tokyo 2010 Global Mission Consultation Handbook" https://www.ggcn.org/wp-content/uploads/tokyo2010/resources/Handbook.pdf (accessed January 11, 2024). See also "The Seoul Declaration on Diaspora Missiology", Lausanne Diaspora Educators Consultation http://tiny.cc/ap7zvz (accessed January 11, 2024).